Climate Change and Global Warming

By Roy Bedford
Published April 2008

There is, in fact, a subtle difference.

‘Climate Change’ is the complete study of our weather, its variability and effects, including the current warming trend. ‘Global Warming’ is the current buzz-phrase that trips off the tongue, but some meteorologists say the term could be misleading. They call it Climate Change.

The climate of the Earth has been changing ever since the first rocks were formed billions of years ago. Sometimes the temperature has increased. At other times it has gone down.

The chemical composition of the atmosphere has also changed. At one time we had precious little free oxygen and too much sulphur dioxide. We had no water vapour, but plenty of nitrogen gases. Then the climate changed dramatically and the Earth became habitable – first for simple cells and algae, then marine life and eventually the first land animals.

The climate is always moving from one extreme to another, sometimes for the better, often for worse. Our present climate is just one snapshot in a long series of Ice Ages, and the long-term variations brought about by continental drift. We emerged from the last Ice Age about 14,000 years ago, and passed the warmest phase of the inter-glacial period about 6000 years before the Romans came to Britain. Since then we have descended spasmodically towards the next return of the ice.

From time to time there have been hiccups in the development of our climate, caused by many dynamic factors:

• variations in the sun’s output,
• the changing tilt and orbit of the Earth,
• intermittent volcanic activity,
• cosmic bombardment, meteors and comets,

And now – the action of man. The plunge into the next Ice Age appears to have been arrested. At least, for the foreseeable future.

In all probability, we won’t have any choice in the matter. We will have to adapt to it. Climate change may bring many benefits, but there will be many aspects that we certainly won’t enjoy.

The last twenty years have seen benign winters, early springs, long summers and colourful autumns. We have forgotten what it is like to be stranded in snow on the Great North Road, buried under a snowdrift in temperatures twenty below zero. We grow plants and trees in our gardens that would not have survived in our grandfather’s day. There are fewer deaths from the cold, and when was the last time you saw a pea-souper fog?

Holidays in Britain are blessed with sunshine, and most outdoor activities are possible the whole year round. Butterfly species are thriving in areas where they have never been seen before, and Britain is now producing home-grown wine on a scale not seen since the Romans were here.

But have you watched the news lately? Polar bears will be extinct in a few years’ time when the ice cap melts. Pacific islanders are packing their bags after seeing their homes invaded by the rising sea. The Sahara Desert is expanding by a hundred miles every year, engulfing towns, villages and the prime wildlife plains of Africa. China is being invaded by huge sand dunes marching out of Mongolia. And, nearer to home – Hull, Evesham and Leamington Spa were devastated by unprecedented floods in 2007. Not to mention the drought in Kent and Sussex, and the crop of tornadoes in July.

We cannot tie each single event down to climate change, but the frequency of these one-in-200-year calamities makes you wonder if it’s more than just coincidence.

Yes, you might enjoy some of the benefits of global warming, but you will change your mind when there’s no bread or milk in the shops, the golf course is ravaged by fire, and scores of refugees come knocking at your door.

There is little doubt that the present phase of warming is caused by an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Sceptics will argue that the opposite is true – that the carbon dioxide factor is a merely by-product of natural warming, and that our own emissions have had little effect on the overall picture.

Whichever view you take, you cannot discount the evidence that both CO2 and temperature have risen in tandem, and the most dramatic rise has taken place within the last twenty years. The change is happening faster than at any time in the Earth’s climatic history.

The warmest year, globally, was 1998, when El Niño was believed to be one of the strongest events ever recorded. This phenomenon, a cyclic change in sea temperatures, is obviously a very significant driver of climate variation. 2006 and 2007 were ‘La Nina’ years, which means that the mystical current has reverted to normal – a much lower sea surface temperature. This has resulted in a ‘blip’ in the warming trend but, despite this, eight of the ten hottest years have all occurred within the last decade.

Experts tell us that the present warming trend is the cumulative effect of industrialisation – over two centuries. But there are so many other factors at work in our weather system, this can only be part of the explanation. What is not in doubt, they say, is the resilience of the greenhouse gas CO2, which can remain in the high atmosphere for many decades, accumulating with every year. It could take two hundred years for it to wash out in the rain, so the effect on the climate could be many times greater than it is today.

The trend is likely to be forever upwards, as long as the major industrial nations continue to pump out greenhouse gases. And, of course, we can’t deny the emerging nations their chance of prosperity. It is hoped that new technology will enable us to avoid the ultimate desecration of the planet.

The future, for our children and grandchildren, is uncertain.

The sceptics will discount global warming as a blip, from which we will emerge much wiser, healthier, and more resourceful. Our planet will have adapted, flora and fauna will have relocated, and our nations will establish a new, richer society in a world free from conflict and discrimination.

The majority of scientists, however, believe that climate change is likely to accelerate. Unless we can find an answer, quickly, it may run out of control.

The planet warmed by half a degree last century. By 2020 that could become a full degree, and up to 2 degrees by 2050, plus or minus one decade. This prediction appears inevitable, purely on the basis of the CO2 already up there in the atmosphere. If we continue to pump in more gases, the timescale is likely to contract, and the trend will continue up towards three degrees.

The North and South Poles are already beyond that figure, which is frightening. The ice caps are melting on a scale never seen before, and the calving of glaciers is accelerating with every year. The consequences are already being felt by wildlife, with the decimation of feeding and breeding areas in the Antarctic, and the loss of the polar bear’s habitat in the frozen north.

We already know that too much fresh water will compromise the flow of the Atlantic Gulf Stream, and if the current were to switch off, as it has done in the past, the consequences would be catastrophic. Europe would become as cold as the Canadian tundra, and London’s winter would be similar to that of Moscow or Leningrad. The polar bears would like that. At least it would delay the Arctic glacier melt!

It would be easy to sit on our hands and avoid any unpleasant measures we have to take. The government knows that if they upset the people who voted them in, the next general election will see them out of a job. So they do the very minimum, just enough to placate the ‘save our planet’ lobby.

Before they know it, a two-degree temperature rise will become reality, and acceleration inevitable.

A three-degree rise would trigger the release of even more CO2, this time from natural sources such as vegetation and soil. Swamps, bogs and permafrost give up large quantities of methane which, in turn, strengthen the greenhouse effect. At four degrees the point of no return will have been passed. Climate change then feeds itself in a vicious, unstoppable circle. More gases are released – producing further warming – in a loop of ‘positive feedback’. A situation we refer to as ‘runaway global warming’.

The ultimate consequences are predictable – starvation, mass migration, political and ethnic warfare, and . . . the end of life as we know it.

There is a historical precedent:
250 million years ago, at the end of the Permian era, global temperatures climbed rapidly by 6 degrees (caused by CO2 from volcanic activity). Sea levels rose by 20 metres, and the world’s fertile continents turned into toxic deserts. 95% of all species were wiped out – birds, fishes, insects, trees, animals and plants. Only one vertebrate is known to have survived – the pig like Lystrosaurus.

What can we do to avoid this nightmare scenario?
We’d better stabilise the world’s energy demands, and find some practical substitutes for oil and coal – quickly!.

The science of Climate Change has been well documented in many publications during the last two decades, more powerfully and in much greater detail than I have been able to illustrate here.

Yesterday’s Weather is the past.

Climate Change is the future. Our future.